Increasing market consensus suggests that BTC could hit a new all-time high in the next two months.
- BTC has retested $67k after an early week decline. Market analysts foresee a new ATH as soon as next month.
Bitcoin [BTC] retested the $67k target after sliding below $64k on the 25th of July, underscoring the cryptocurrency’s resilience despite the ongoing distribution by the Mt Gox estate.
This price resilience could signal another indication—a likely retest of the range-high or all-time high (ATH). There’s increasing market consensus for the latter.
In fact, according to Quinn Thompson, founder of Lekker Capital, an ATH could be hit as early as mid-August because of a likely Fed quantitative easing (rate cuts).
“I expect #Bitcoin all-time highs by mid-August. The Fed is about to ease into bottomed inflation, and it will show up in the price of Oil, Gold, and crypto.”
Macro setup and easing supply overhangs for BTC
According to most market observers, the macro setup, especially with the expected Fed rate cut in September, could rally risk assets, including BTC and overall crypto.
That’s the same reason for Thompson’s outlook — BTC could price in a possible September rate cut by mid-August.
According to the Fed Watch Tool, the odds of a September rate cut stood at 87%, meaning over 8 out of 10 interest traders expect a cut.
However, another macro analyst believed that the consensus was too high to be true and suggested that the Fed could cut the rate by next week (the next Fed decision on the 31st of July).
Macro setup aside, BTC has also responded well to recent supply overhangs, especially Mt.Gox repayments. This has reinforced confidence that a next leg up could happen soon.
One of the market watchers, DeFiSquared, noted,
“Bitstamp BTC distributed, Kraken BTC distributed, Germany BTC all sold. Literally negative overhang on the horizon, with FTX returning $16 billion in cash to crypto natives later. New ATH sooner than most expect.”
CryptoQuant data also confirmed that Mt. Gox repayments, as seen on the Kraken exchange, didn’t affect the recent BTC dip.
“No price disparity or volume surge at Kraken; in/outflows are normal. Recent price drop unrelated to Gox creditors.”
Source: CryptoQuant
However, the US government could be a crucial BTC sell pressure.
The US recently sold some of its holdings, spooking fears, but still held over 200K BTC worth $14.3 billion, per Arkham Intelligence data. With three months to elections, this supply couldn’t be overlooked.
Meanwhile, the overall market sentiment was bullish, especially from the derivatives sector, as shown by the positive Taker Buyer Sell Ratio. It meant that buying volume eclipsed sell orders.
Source: CryptoQuant
However, given the significant liquidation cluster at $68.9k, it was a key target for BTC bulls to watch.
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