The attention other memecoins are getting may invalidate a parabolic move for Dogecoin.
- With a lesser volume compared to past peaks, DOGE might end up trading between $0.18 and $0.22. The performances of other memecoins might ensure that the price action remains conservative.
Dogecoin [DOGE] has lost 16.27% of its value in the last 30 days alone. However, as May draws nearer, history could be kind to the coin and help it recover some of its losses.
DOGE’s price has been known to register a positive return in the 5th month over the past few years. In May 2021, for instance, Dogecoin hiked from $0.33 to above $0.52 over the course of a single month.
Before that, 2017 and 2019 were years when the cryptocurrency recorded a similar performance. In 2022, the memecoin could not do the same because a bear phase had crept in — Notably, the Terra Luna [LUNA] crash period.
Last year, DOGE’s price held firm over the course of May since the market was just recovering. Ergo, the question – What can we expect from Dogecoin in May 2024?
It’s not close
Well, one thing AMBCrypto has to mention is that there could be a difference. This, because the Bitcoin [BTC] halving was just weeks ago. Following the last halving, Dogecoin did not initiate its significant move until February 2021.
That was seven months after the four-year event. If the memecoin does that again, then a significant rally might not happen next month. Instead, the altcoin might wait until November before it starts producing the kind of staggering moves it did in 2021.
However, history alone cannot determine the price action. That is why it’s worth evaluating the possibility on-chain. For this part, AMBCrypto compared the volume.
When Dogecoin’s rally began in 2021, the volume was over $6 billion. When it hit its peak, the volume around the coin was over $42 billion.
Source: Santiment
Memecoin battle may continue
At press time, DOGE’s volume was just $958.76 million, meaning that interest in the token was nowhere close to the interest at that time. However, that does not take anything away from the coin.
If the cryptocurrency begins a bull run next month, the volume has to be at least 3x to 5x from its current value. Failure to do that might make May a month of mild gains or sideways movement.
To be realistic, DOGE might not be able to produce that kind of performance and the reasons are clear. During the previous bull cycle, there weren’t as many memecoins sharing liquidity with Dogecoin as they are now. As such, the price of the memecoin might climb. Alas, targets in a highly bullish scenario might stay between $0.18 and $0.22.
Even so, despite the conservative price prediction, Dogecoin might remain a cryptocurrency with good potential this cycle.
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Should the broader market condition exit its consolidation phase to the bullish zone, DOGE might drive past $0.50 in the mid-term. However, this is not a forecast that traders want to go by within a few weeks.
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