Mt Gox is close to finalizing it BTC distribution; will the market rebound now?
- Mt. Gox’s recent transfer has left it with a $3B BTC balance. BTC continued its sell-off ahead of the U.S. July jobs report set for the 2nd of August.
The recent Mt. Gox transfer of $3.1 billion Bitcoin [BTC] to BitGo has lowered the defunct exchange’s balance even more, signaling that its supply overhang could end soon.
According to Arkham data, the BitGo transfer, made on the 30th of July, has brought the Trustee estate’s balance to $3.06 billion.
“Last night Mt. Gox addresses moved 33.96K BTC ($2.25B) to addresses we believe are most likely BitGo:..After these transfers, Mt. Gox now holds 46.16K BTC ($3.06B), including the new Mt. Gox address.”
Mt. Gox supply pressure is almost over
The above considerable reduction in the trustee estate holdings meant that, like German government pressure, the Mt Gox perceived threat would end soon.
Interestingly, the recent distribution from the defunct exchange didn’t exert pressure on the market as previously assumed.
According to Glassnode data, there weren’t notable sell-side effects amongst major exchanges, Kraken and Bitstamp, that the trustee estate used for repayments.
In fact, the Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) metric on Kraken surged marginally after the distribution, denoting that there wasn’t any selling pressure after the exchange received the repayment.
CVD tracks the net sell or buy volume on the exchange, with a positive value indicating more buy volume on market orders side.
Source: Glassnode
Glassnode established a similar scenario on Bitstamp. Hence, the repayment didn’t drag the market like the German government’s sell-off. In short, the remaining $3 billion BTC could be moved without affecting the market.
However, the key sell pressure at the moment was the U.S. government. It currently has about $13 billion BTC after moving $2 billion BTC last week and spooking the market.
Since June, the German and US sell-off fears have offered bears more edge in the market.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, the selling pressure has emboldened bears throughout the summer, as shown by the Net Taker Volume.
“It must be acknowledged that the bears’ pressure since the beginning of summer has been impressive. Until the metric becomes greater than zero, the bulls will have to worry.”
Source: CryptoQuant
The negative Net Taker Volume meant the market had been predominantly selling, as buy volumes outweighed the buy side.
As of press time, BTC had hit $63.0k and threatened to weaken further ahead of the U.S. July Jobs reports, which are set to be released on the 2nd of August.
It remains to be seen whether the jobs report will ease the accelerated sell-off despite the dovish FOMC meeting.
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