Polymarket thinks Trump will win the 2024 elections, but is there more to the story?
- Trump-themed tokens surged amid optimism about his 2024 election prospects Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies faced volatility due to regulatory concerns and inflation pressures
As the countdown to the U.S presidential election intensifies, the competition between candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is heating up. Right now, prevailing trends on Polymarket suggest Trump is likely to win the 2024 elections. However, the election is still too close to call.
PoliFi tokens show resilience
Donald Trump-themed Political Finance (PoliFi) tokens have shown resilience lately. They defied the low volatility that Bitcoin [BTC] and the broader cryptocurrency market have been experiencing. This surge in interest is a sign of the growing optimism surrounding Trump’s electoral prospects, which climbed to a two-month high on Polymarket.
On 10 October, BTC slid by over 4%. The following day, it rebounded and stabilized above $60,000.
Many suggest that the surge in inflation pressure in September contributed to this downturn. Major cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum [ETH] and Dogecoin [DOGE] saw large declines too, plunging by as much as 6%.
Trump-themed memecoins soars high
On the contrary, Trump-themed tokens, including MAGA [TRUMP], MAGA HAT [MAGA], and Doland Tremp [TREMP], showcased remarkable resilience – Each soaring by double digits this week.
Notably, MAGA, the largest of these tokens, surged by 55% over the week, surpassing a market cap of $200 million. MAGA HAT and TREMP recorded impressive gains of 102% and 93%, respectively, too.
By 11 October, the broader cryptocurrency market showed some signs of recovery though, according to CoinMarketCap. BTC gained by 0.30% at press time, while ETH and DOGE hiked by 1.24% and 2.07%, respectively, on the 24-hour charts.
According to the latest update from CoinGecko, the total market cap for PolitiFi tokens hit $819 million after posting a 14.2% hike in just a day.
TRUMP surged by 14.3%, TREMP climbed by 15.5%, and MAGA rose by 19.7% within 24 hours.
These three tokens emerged as the trending assets in the top PolitiFi coins by market cap. This is a sign of their significant impact on the market, as per CoinGecko.
Source: CoinGecko
Update on KAMA
On the other hand, the Kamala Harris-themed memecoin, Kamala Horris [KAMA], also saw a double-digit hike of 10.4% in a day.
However, it remained far behind, ranking in the 10th position. It was overshadowed by nine Trump-related memecoins that have been dominating the market.
This trend was not limited to memecoins either as Polymarket indicated that Trump is significantly outpacing Harris in popularity and potential support.
Polymarket’s trend
The prediction market highlighted this disparity, showcasing the ongoing momentum behind Trump-themed assets as the election race intensifies.
Source: Polymarket
Echoing a similar sentiment was an X (formerly Twitter) user who said,
Source: Matt/X
However, not everyone shares this sentiment. Another user on X, classicsgroyp, raised an important point. He stated,
“Polymarket is owned by Peter Thiel who owns JD Vance btw.”
The post emphasized that Polymarket’s predictions can be unreliable, as they are often influenced by Trump and his vice-presidential running mate, J.D.Vance.
Therefore, while current trends suggest a clear lead for Trump, the outcome remains uncertain until 5 November.
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