Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, shared a ‘policy scorecard’ based on the US presidential candidates’ stances toward the crypto industry.
The card suggests that Vice President Kamala Harris winning the election has limited downside risk for the industry and would be more favorable than the current Biden regime. However, former US President and candidate Donald Trump presents the most favorable approach to crypto.
Galaxy Research analysts are “optimistic” that actions so far suggest Harris’ term could be friendlier than US President Joe Biden has been.
Major differences in tax and Bitcoin mining policies
The major differences between Harris and Trump when it comes to crypto surface in four out of seven issues: taxes, Bitcoin mining, self-custody, and banking regulations.
On taxes, Galaxy analysts described Harris’ campaign as “extremely hostile,” citing her public pledge to roll back Trump’s tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. In contrast, Trump is expected to bring more clarity to digital asset tax policies.
Bitcoin mining policies show a similar contrast. While Biden proposed a 30% tax on mining, Harris has been much more lenient in her campaign rhetoric. The scorecard rates her stance as “slightly better” than Biden’s but still somewhat hostile.
Meanwhile, Trump is seen as highly supportive of Bitcoin mining due to meetings with miners and receiving donations from them. He has also publicly stated that he considers mining to be part of “domestic manufacturing.”
Harris and Trump also differ widely in their banking policies. Behind-the-scenes discussions suggest that Harris may ease Biden’s “Operation Chokepoint 2.0,” acknowledging the need for the crypto industry to have banking access.
Trump, however, is seen as “extremely supportive,” pledging to end Operation Chokepoint 2.0 completely and allowing national banks to engage with blockchains. He has also voiced strong opposition to a central bank digital currency (CBDC).
On self-custody, the policies of Harris and Trump are relatively similar. Harris has made no direct statements on the issue, though some of her campaign advisors have been hostile toward it in the past. Trump is “somewhat supportive,” having vowed to protect self-custody rights during the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville.
Galaxy’s analysis is based on public statements and reports from sources close to both campaigns.
Bitcoin is likely unaffected, altcoins could soar
Bitcoin (BTC) is notably absent from most regulatory discussions on the scorecard, suggesting it would remain unaffected regardless of whether Harris or Trump wins next month’s election. However, the outlook for altcoins is more divided.
A Trump victory could provide the regulatory clarity needed for altcoins to outperform Bitcoin, while a Harris administration could pose risks to these assets. Tokens like Uniswap’s UNI stand to benefit if Trump brings long-awaited regulatory reforms to the US crypto industry.
While a Trump presidency has “explosive upside” potential for the crypto industry, Galaxy’s head of research sees “limited” downside risk in a Harris victory, noting that her positions on crypto are generally better than Biden’s.