Bitcoin is set to close another week in the green but the tides might change soon.
- $8.1 billion Bitcoin options could expire at the end of the week. A look at the current market conditions and behavior ahead of the main day.
Bitcoin [BTC] had an impressive rally so far this month but how much longer can the bulls sustain the momentum? A retracement might be due to take place before the end of this week due to options expiry.
There are reportedly over $8.1 billion worth of Bitcoin options set to expire on Friday this week. This could spell volatility for the cryptocurrency in the next few days.
This is because the options expiry could lead to a significant reaction in the market. However, this will depend on the prevailing sentiment among investors.
The balance between calls and puts will determine the outcome. Higher call options align with a bullish sentiment and higher puts indicate bearish expectations.
Bitcoin’s fear and greed indicator revealed that the sentiment has been leaning in favor of the bulls in the last few days.
Source: alternative.me
Market sentiment is subject to change, which means there might be room for dramatic change between now and the time those options expire.
Also, the put/call ratio along with open interest have historically been used to gauge bullish or bearish sentiment.
A put/call ratio above 1 is traditionally considered a bearish sign while blow 1 is seen as a bullish sign.
According to Barchart.com, Bitcoin’s put/call open interest ratio was 1.12 while its put/call volume ratio at the time of writing was 5.
More Bitcoin volatility ahead?
Meanwhile, Open Interest and exchange reserves have both been on the rise in the last three weeks.
The high Open Interest paves way for more volatility, while Bitcoin’s surging exchange reserves mean traders are moving coins to exchange addresses. So, traders might be preparing to liquidate in case the market switches.
Source: CryptoQuant
While Open Interest and exchange reserves have been growing, there is also a significant probability that calls might be dominant.
Bitcoin had roughly $6 billion worth of options contracts by the last Friday of March 2021. Optimistic expectations for the following months favored call options.
As a result, the price delivered a bullish performance in the following month.
Bitcoin’s current position is similar to the last Friday of 2024 where the bulls paused after a strong rally. The bulls resumed despite heavy expectations of a bearish correction.
While this does not necessarily mean that the bulls will continue to build on their latest momentum, it underscores a highly probable outcome.
Ultimately, BTC’s direction ultimately depends on the buy or sell pressure that will prevail for the next few days.
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