VanEck has made a contrarian bet on BTC if Harris wins 2024 US elections
- VanEck analysts believe BTC could benefit more from a ‘hostile’ Harris administration. Polymarket showed Harris maintained a 3-point lead on Trump.
According to VanEck analysts, regardless of who wins the 2024 US elections, Bitcoin [BTC] will sail through unscathed.
However, analyst Mathew Sigel stated that BTC could benefit more from a Kamala Harris administration than under Trump.
“I do think it is possible that an unfriendly Democrat White House could inadvertently help BTC.”
VanEck analysts further divulged the above outlook in the latest September BTC review.
“We would argue that a Kamala Harris presidency might be even better for Bitcoin than a second term for Trump because it would, in our view, accelerate many of the structural issues that drive Bitcoin adoption in the first place.”
Biden-Harris admin vs BTC
Trump has been a strong proponent of BTC, and his potential win will be deemed a bullish cue for regulatory easing for the sector.
However, the analysts highlighted that the hostile Harris administration could reinforce BTC’s market dominance.
“Should that happen, Bitcoin’s unique regulatory clarity will likely make it even more competitive than other digital assets.”
The structural problems raised were linked to rising US debts and fiscal deficits. The analysts noted that these issues will persist regardless of whether Trump or Harris wins the election.
Analysts Mathew Sigel and Nathan Frankovitz highlighted that this would weaken the US dollar, a ripe environment that has historically boosted BTC.
Nevertheless, market pundits have cautioned that the infamous Operation ChokePoint 2.0 (OCP) will likely be extended, with a Harris administration becoming more likely. OCP refers to perceived US agencies’ restriction of crypto firms from accessing the US banking system.
That said, a recent update indicated that Silvergate, a crypto-focused bank, was solvent and able to meet its financial obligations but was allegedly forced to shut down under the Fed’s pressure.
Source: X
In August, the Fed put another crypto-friendly bank, Customers Bank, on notice. Tyler Winklevoss, co-founder of Gemini, said the continued restriction would kill the crypto industry in the US.
Amid the massive de-banking among US crypto firms, VanEck analysts believe BTC’s regulatory clarity would boost it. At press time, Harris (51%) had a 3-point lead against Trump (48%) on odds of winning US elections on the prediction site Polymarket.
In the meantime, BTC was valued at $63.1K at press time and was on the verge of reclaiming the 200-day Moving Average (MA).
According to Coinbase analysts, the asset could attract more traders’ interest and traction if it surged above the 200-day MA to reinforce a long-term bullish trend.
Source: BTC/USD, TradingView
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