DOGE shows all bullish signs, placing $0.40 as a local bottom, yet a rebound might still be hindered.
- DOGE closed November with a near 170% surge, riding the wave of Bitcoin’s volatility. If Dogecoin can continue to counter bearish pressures, a similar pattern could unfold.
Dogecoin [DOGE] has recently landed in the “mostly bullish” category, recording a 2% gain over the past 24 hours, bolstered by a significant 40% surge in new addresses.
This comes on the heels of a strong performance throughout the week, with DOGE hitting $0.48, its highest level during this election cycle.
However, as the “Trump trade” cooled and weaker hands exited, DOGE retraced to $0.40, establishing a key resistance level.
Should the price find a local bottom here, it may set the stage for a potential rebound, with capital rotating from Bitcoin [BTC] as the king coin takes a breather.
DOGE must capitalize on volatility
Amid a post-election market shakeup, DOGE hasn’t been left out of the rally, having surged over 170% in November alone.
Despite this impressive surge, altcoins have been grabbing the spotlight, sparking speculation that an altcoin season might be on the horizon.
Altcoin seasons typically occur when Bitcoin’s dominance wanes, as investors rotate capital into high-cap altcoins in search of higher returns.
This often happens when BTC reaches price levels viewed as “high-risk,” pushing traders to seek opportunities elsewhere.
With Bitcoin still hovering below the critical $100K threshold entering the final month of Q4, investors are likely reassessing their strategies. This shift is creating a prime opportunity for tokens like Dogecoin to shine.
Source : TradingView
In the second week of November, DOGE made a notable move, gaining over 20% against BTC and breaking the $0.00000400 level. This surge was backed by an RSI that soared past 90, indicating strong buying pressure.
However, a correction soon followed as traders shifted their focus back to Bitcoin. Within seven trading days, BTC surged above $99K, forming a local bottom around the $90K level.
Looking ahead, unless Bitcoin bounces off this bottom level, its path will likely depend on macroeconomic factors – such as the upcoming Fed meeting – that could trigger a bull rally past $100K.
In the meantime, a period of consolidation seems more probable, potentially shifting the market’s focus toward altcoins, allowing DOGE to capture a larger share of attention.
However, this can only materialize if DOGE maintains bullish momentum across key metrics to capture the attention of strategic investors.
While the 40% surge in new addresses is a positive sign, it may not be sufficient on its own.
A strong rebound depends on two key conditions
DOGE’s impressive rally in November resulted from significant accumulation in the spot market. On the day it reached $0.40, traders withdrew more than 47 million DOGE tokens from exchanges.
This accumulation set the stage for a rapid price spike, with DOGE closing at $0.48 in less than seven trading days.
Source : Coinglass
However, after Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $99K and saw a 5% drop, the Dogecoin rally also lost momentum.
As a result, DOGE dropped 8% in a day, but the RSI remained steady, signaling that excessive selling pressure didn’t drive the correction – a strong bullish sign.
Trading at $0.4275 at press time, DOGE has shown positive movement across other key metrics, with $0.40 potentially forming a local bottom.
This suggests intervention from both retail and institutional investors, signaling strong support at this level.
A rebound from the current price level could push DOGE toward $0.48 in the coming days. However, there are two key factors that could halt this rally.
First, if investors shift their focus back to Bitcoin after the upcoming Fed meeting, where the market expects a 25 basis point rate cut, DOGE could experience only short-term gains as capital rotates back into BTC.
Second, if the market falls below the $0.40 support level and key metrics turn bearish, DOGE may face further downward pressure, which could signal a shift in market sentiment.
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