Will History Repeat Itself in Bitcoin? How True is the Mega Bull Claim Ahead of the US Elections?
QCP Capital has published a market analysis highlighting that Bitcoin has recently surged from $62,000 to $65,000, with around $80 million worth of leveraged BTC and ETH positions being liquidated.
While some have attributed the price increase to news that Mt. Gox has extended its repayment period to October 2025, QCP Capital notes that this information was already made public last Friday.
The firm suggests that while a variety of factors could explain the rally, the timing is particularly interesting because it falls in mid-October, just three weeks before the US presidential election. QCP Capital drew parallels with past election cycles, noting that in both 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin saw significant price movements that began a full three weeks before elections. In 2016, BTC doubled from $600 by early January, while in 2020, it rose from $11,000 to $42,000 over a similar period.
Despite the less impressive current month, with Bitcoin up just 1.2% compared to a historical average gain of 21% in October, QCP Capital believes the recent rally could be a turning point. The firm stresses that after months of range-bound trading, today’s price action could indicate the market is primed for a repeat of previous patterns.
As spot prices continue to rise, QCP Capital expects market participants to focus on Q4 profit targets and closely monitor whether Bitcoin can gain momentum ahead of the election.
*This is not investment advice.
