XRP’s short-term price action may not be good news for its long-term holders.
- XRP’s price looked set to hit $0.46 after the number of realized profits increased Downswing could continue if traction on the network continues to fall
Over the last 24 hours, XRP hit its highest levels of daily on-chain transaction volumes in profit, since 26 May. This was evident from the ratio of transactions in volume to loss.
When the reading is below 1, it means that there are more transactions in loss than in profit. At press time, the ratio was 2.016. This means that for every transaction that ended in a realized loss, there were two more in realized profits.
Price hike foreshadows profit-taking
The hike was a result of XRP’s price performance. On 28 June, the price of the token hit $0.48 on the charts. However, at press time, the token had dropped to $0.47 again.
Though the rise in profit-taking is a good thing for holders, it is not the same for the price. This, because an increase in gains booked could halt a cryptocurrency’s price from going higher.
As can be seen in the image below, almost every time the metric spiked, the price fell soon after. This time, it might not be different. If this is the case, the value of the altcoin might drop to $0.46 within a few days.
Source: Santiment
Furthermore, AMBCrypto examined the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. This metric also measures holders’ profitability. However, it also helps in spotting prices to accumulate and when to distribute.
At press time, XRP’s 30-day ratio was -5.45%. Usually, a negative ratio means that the average XRP holder is at a loss. Therefore, if all holders decide to sell, the average return would be -5.45%.
The downtrend is not yet over
Historically, good buying opportunities appear when the metric is between -8.59% and -18.63%. As such, the price of the token could go lower before a rebound happens.
Thus, the prediction to $0.46 seems feasible. However, it is important to note that invalidation might occur if a broader altcoin rally begins. If this is the case, the value of the crypto could retest $0.48.
In a highly bullish scenario, XRP could climb as high as $0.50.
We also looked at the project’s Network Growth. As the name implies, Network Growth measures traction on a network. It also measures the adoption of a token. If the number of new addresses making their first transaction increases, Network Growth hikes.
Source: Santiment
However, when there is a dearth of new addresses, the metric falls. At the time of writing, this metric had declined, indicating that adoption of the token has been underwhelming.
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Should this metric remain at a very low spot, XRP might find it challenging to bounce.
In the short term, targets remain between $0.46 and $0.48. Unless something drastic happens, the altcoin might not visit $0.50 anytime soon.
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