A key indicator of this market phase has declined, casting doubt on the arrival of the season.
- The prospect for an altcoin season continues to drop as the TOTAL2 market cap remained elusive of BTC. Though some analysts see a buying opportunity, market trend suggest that it is way off.
For months, analysts have opined that the altcoin season is close. But through those times, those predictions have failed to become reality. Again, the same speculation is going around after Bitcoin’s [BTC] price dropped to its lowest value in two months.
Altcoin season, popularly called alt season, refers to a cycle where other cryptocurrencies outperform BTC. To validate this market phase, at least 75% of the top 50 alts per market cap need to perform better than the number one cryptocurrency.
But this cycle, many of these cryptocurrencies have struggled to match Bitcoin’s dominance. In most cases, Bitcoin has been leading the rise and fall of the broader crypto market.
Will alts later catch Bitcoin?
One technical indicator that says “yes” or “no” to the season is the TOTAL2 chart. This chart measures the total market cap of all other cryptocurrencies in the market except for BTC.
When this indicator jumps, it gives credence to the possibility of a nearing alt season. But a notable decline suggests otherwise.
According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, the TOTAL2 market cap was $960.23 billion at press time. Over the last six months, this was a 25.63% hike. However, the last 30 days up until the last 24 hours has been torrid for it.
Source: TradingView
Particularly, the value has dropped 15.08% within the last month and 4.13% in the last seven days. Considering the current state, it might be reasonable to say that altcoins might not experience respite soon.
However, if the value begin to rise and get closer to a $1 trillion market cap, then the possibility of all-inclusive price increase might heighten.
Memes are the ones to lead, some analysts say
Meanwhile, several analysts have commented on the the possible performance of these coins. For example, Murad, an analyst on X, opined that memecoins are going to lead the surge where altcoin season comes or not.
In his post, Murad noted that,
“If an Alt Season happens, Memes will outperform the Alts. If an Alt Season doesn’t happen, Memes will outperform the Alts.”
From the performance of cryptos this year, one cannot deny that his opinion could be valid. This is because the meme coins like Pepe [PEPE], Bonk [BONK], Floki [FLOKI], and a host of others have outperformed many other altcoins.
If this remains the case when the market rebound, then Murad’s stance would be validated. Another Pseudonymous trader Mister Crypto did not state his preference.
However, on the 1st of July, he mentioned that the plunge in prices have offered a rare buying opportunity. He wrote,
“To be honest, so many Altcoin charts are looking like great buys right now. Most of them will easily 30x.”
ETH’s role has not come into play
While these predictions are subject to market conditions, there were others looking at the ETH/BTC chart to confirm their bias. The ETH/BTC chart shows if Bitcoin is outperforming Ethereum [ETH] or it is the other way around.
Historically, when ETH beats BTC to its game, it offers altcoins the chance to perform better than the king coin. But if BTC leads, altcoin season become hard to come by.
At press time, AMBCrypto observed that the ETH/BTC chart was down to 0.054. This was a 1.62% decrease in the last seven days. Some days ago, the price was 0.056.
Source: TradingView
But the recent value means 1 ETH can only buy 0.054 BTC. If this gets better, altcoin season improves. If not, the market phase could be delayed.
In the meantime, the broader market could be waiting for the spot Ethereum ETFs to start trading before they get confirmation of an altcoin season.
Realistic or not, here’s ETH’s market cap in BTC terms
Though the event was initially predicted to start on the 2nd of July, expectations have now tilted toward the 8th.
If ETH mirrors Bitcoin’s performance after its own approval in January, it would be great for altcoins. If it does not, then altcoin season might be far away.
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